Can we believe what we hear and read in the media these days. In fact, this writing, in its own way is a new form of media. However, when it comes to our technological advancements over the past 3 decades which tends to look like the beginning of an up ramp of an exponential curve, by the time I finish writing this, Blogs could be outdated. So I must hurry, lest I not be heard, read, and honored for my brilliant insight and abilities — or at a minimum be recognized for my ability to baffle one with my Bull Shit.
So I’ll let ‘er rip. But be advised, that with most things I write, I ‘m not really sure where I am headed until I get there. I start with an idea, and end up somewhere else. Not always good, not always bad, sometime pointless, and confusing. And I assume, always makes at least 58% of readers go … HUH?
There’s a saying that many have heard before with the purpose of leading one to the conclusion that bits of information presented, combined together and analyzed can lead to a conclusion of a certain probability of being truth. Let’s look at the probability of a DNA Match. The chance is 1/7000 that an unrelated person would by chance have the same DNA profile as that obtained from the evidence. That’s a .014% possibility that an unrelated person would have the same DNA profile.
So it could be said that 0.014% is so small a percentage that DNA Evidence presented in court which is stated to have a 99.999% accuracy, is considered a valid DNA MATCH.
Seems like such a tiny percentage to worry about. So small that to make an assumption that 0.014% could ever be considered a valid percentage to use in proving or disproving the accuracy of a 99.999% accurate test. I mean what the hell, lets run with the this small percentage as being not big enough to consider having any value.
Well folks I got something to tell you about tiny percentages and how the media, statisticians, number crunchers and all the other people who deal with numbers can turn the whole tiny thousandth of a percent or as you will see, even a much smaller percentage into proof of what we citizens of the Good Ole USA Think!
These tiny fractions of a percent are used to tell the world just what you and I think about everything and anything, and they are called (SOUND TRUMPET FANFARE HERE) POLLS!
USA TODAY and Gallup conducted a Poll of the American people and asked – “Just your best guess, do you think – President, Obama, George W Bush, Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton believes/believed the U.S has a unique character that makes it the greatest country in the world, or not?”
The results were posted with the explanation that “ON THE WHOLE, AMERICANS, by 58% to 37%, believe Obama thinks the U.S. exceptional, consistent with what he and his advisers maintain, in comparison to Bush 74% to 22%, Clinton 77% to 19% and Reagan 86% to 9%. (Note: I will not explore why Obama’s and Reagan’s percentages add up to 95% and Bush and Clinton’s total percentage add up to 96%)
You can view these results by clicking on this link: http://www.gallup.com/poll/145358/americans-exceptional-doubt-obama.aspx
Now remember that tiny 0.014% excluded error that, in DNA Testing, is considered a legal match . Well guess what ? The information that the Gallup Poll used to make the statement “ON THE WHOLE, AMERICANS BELIEVE” is a percentage of the AMERICAN POPULATION that makes 0.014% a huge number.
The poll, conducted by Gallup, randomly picked, called and question a sample of the AMERICAN PUBLIC. The total number of people called and questioned were – READY?
On Thousand Nineteen people!
Now consider that the 2010 Census for the population of the U.S states is:
308, 000, 000
Therefore the percentage of people polled, that Gallup says is “ON THE WHOLE” what “AMERICANS BELIEVE” is justified by Gallup’s disclaimer at the bottom of the page of the web link given above:
“Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted December 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.”
Pull out your Calculators !
DNA TEST – 1/7000 = 99.999997959183673469387755102041% Chance of being Genetically Related
UNKNOWN OR POSSIBLE ERROR = 00.014285714285714285714285714285714% Chance of being Genetically Match to Someone Unrelated
Conclusion —- DNA Testing, which is said to be 99.999% accurate considers 00.014% is to small a percentage to consider a DNA MISMATCH.
Number of people polled – 1019
Population of use 380, 000, 000
Percentage of population NOT POLLED = 99.99966915584416%
Percentage of population Polled = 00.0003308441558441558%
CONCLUSION = GALLUP SAYS THERE WITH 95% CONFIDENCE THAT 0.00033% OF THE POPULATION REPRESENTS 100% OF THE U.S. POPULATIONS OPINION WHILE NEGATING 99.999% OF ACTUAL U.S. OPINION
WHILE DNA TESTING SAYS THAT WITH 99.999% CONFIDENCE THAT 99.999% REPRESENT A 100% DNA MATCH WHILE IGNORING THE 0.14% AS TOO SMALL A PERCENTAGE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT’
For Gallup to conduct a poll that resulted in 0.014% being quoted as 95% accuracy in determining what the AMERICAN PEOPLE CONSIDER, they would have had to poll at least 4,312,000 people – not 1019..
Gallup – .00033% means – TOTAL
DNA – .014% – to small a percentage to be considered.
BOTTOM LINE – IF YOU HAVE THE RIGHT STUFF … YOU CAN MAKE NOTHING APPEAR AS EVERYTHING AND EVERYTHING APPEAR AS NOTHING. GET THE MEDIA TO FEED IT THE PUBLIC AND WE WILL BY IT – NO QUESTIONS ASKED.
You be the judge — What is reported and taken as fact may not be what it seems
Has Bill like a duck
Has webbed feet like a duck
Dives for food like a duck
Lays eggs like a duck
It Must be a